U.S. President Donald Trump displays a signed executive order during a tariff announcement in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, April 2, 2025. Credit - Jim Lo Scalzo—EPA/Bloomberg via Getty Images The roller coaster that is President Donald Trump's trade war steamed ahead this week. On Wednesday, a federal district court dealt a major blow to Trumpwhen it ruledthat hissweeping global tariffswere illegal. On Thursday, an appeals courtruledthe levies could remain in place for now. And then, on Friday, Trumpaccused Chinaof violating a preliminary trade deal andsuggested he would respond. As all this unfolds and the U.S. legal systemlumbers toward a final verdict, one thing is clear: the White House needs to get a real trade strategy, and fast. Read More:The Five Small Businesses That Helped Block Trump's Tariffs Few issuesare more fundamentalto Trump's worldview than trade. For Trump, trade is not merely an economic issue, but a litmus test of whether America iswinning or losing on the world stage. Even matters of war and peace, such as Taiwan and the South China Sea, have seemingly taken a back seat toTrump's stubborn fixationon China's trade surplus with the U.S. During his first term, Trump launched a trade war against China with a goal, ashe framed it, of punishingChina's unfair trade practices. The trade war ended with aPhase-one dealwherein China promised to increase its future purchases of American products and enact structural reforms. Ultimately, this dealfailed to deliver. The Chinese underperformed on their pledges. Trumpblamedthe Biden Administration for not enforcing the deal. Unbowed by the disappointment of his first trade war with China, Trump launched a second one when he returned to office earlier this year. This time, he surrounded himself with loyalists who supported his instincts for public confrontation and rapid escalation to force China to the negotiating table. Trump's approach appeared to be built on an assumption that China's economy was brittle, and Beijing would buckle under pressure. Read More:Why Trump Will Blink First on China That bet backfired. Chinaretaliatedwith counter-tariffs. Beijing alsoimplementednovel new export controls on critical minerals and magnets upon which U.S. industries depend. Chinese policymakers moved swiftly to shore up China's economy while expanding trade ties with other partners. Rather than fold, China punched back. As the economic costs of the trade war mounted onbothsidesof the Pacific, Trumpdesignatedhis Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to negotiate a90-day truce. The Chinese accepted. Trump's trade war with China is not over. It is merely paused. Trump will continue returning to the well of grievance about America's trade imbalance with China until he can secure a deal that he can sell as a win to the American public. But therein lies the rub. Based on my recent exchanges with Chinese officials and experts, it seems Beijing has taken America's measure in recent weeks and concluded that China has greater capacity to withstand economic pain than the U.S. China's leaders lack confidence that any agreement with the mercurial Trump will last. At a more fundamental level, China's leaders are unclear on what specifically Trump seeks—and what he would offer in return. On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that U.S.-China talks were "a bit stalled" and suggested Trump and Xi Jinping "have a call." But until the Trump Administration can articulate its concrete objectives, its strategy for achieving them, and its vision of a productive process for doing so, the U.S.-China trade war will stay stalemated. Read More:It's Time for Trump and Xi to Meet To be clear, the Trump Administration has legitimate grievances about China's unfair economic practices. China'smarket access barriers,forced technology transfers, andstate-directed subsidiesto preferred industries and businesses have createdmassive global trade distortions. But grievance is not a strategy. And daily improvisation is not a formula for progress in negotiations. The 90-day trade truce gives the Trump Administration time and space to do its homework. That means discarding the failed assumptions that Xi will cave under pressure and instead doing the hard work of homing in on what specifically Trump is aiming to achieve and what he is prepared to give in return. In the end, trade policy is not about scoring points or undermining competitors. It is about making America stronger, safer, and more prosperous. If Trump wants to succeed, he will need to move beyond theatrics and prepare for the grinding process of negotiating with China that awaits. Contact usatletters@time.com.
