Tropical Storm Alvinis producing large swells that will affect portions of the coasts of west-central and southwestern Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula in the next couple of days, according to theNational Hurricane Center. These swells are "likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions" and the hurricane center advises people to keep an eye on weather forecasts from their local weather office. TheNHC said Friday morningthe storm is located about 445 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph with higher gusts. Alvin is moving toward the north-northwest, however a turn toward the north is expected Friday. "Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Alvin is expected to degenerate to a remnant low on Saturday," according to the hurricane center. While the 2025 Pacific hurricane season began on May 15, the Atlantic season officially begins on June 1 and will last through the end of November. Active hurricane weather typically peaks between mid-August and mid-October. TheNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationreleased its prediction for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, May 22,predicting an above-average season, with 13 to 19 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes. The hurricane center is also keeping tabs on a disturbance just offshore of Central America and southern Mexico. The NHC said an area of low pressure could form by the middle part of next week and that environmental conditions appear "favorable for some development" while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward. The hurricane center gives the disturbance a 20% chance of formation through the next seven days. This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts. Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees Fahrenheit. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression. A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reaches 39 miles per hour. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane. Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," NOAA recommends. Prepare now for hurricanes:Here's what you should do to stay safe before a storm arrives Develop an evacuation plan: If you are at risk from hurricanes, you need anevacuation plan. Now is the time to begin planning where you would go and how you would get there. Assemble disaster supplies: Whether you're evacuating or sheltering-in-place, you're going to need supplies not just to get through the storm but for the potentially lengthy aftermath,NOAA said. Get an insurance checkup and document your possessions: Contact your insurance company or agent now and ask for aninsurance check-upto make sure you have enough insurance to repair or even replace your home and/or belongings. Remember, home and renters insurance doesn't cover flooding, so you'll need a separate policy for it. Flood insurance is available through your company, agent, or theNational Flood Insurance Program. Act now, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period. Create a family communication plan: NOAA said to take the time now to write down yourhurricane plan, and share it with your family. Determine family meeting places, and make sure to include an out-of-town location in case of evacuation. Strengthen your home: Now is the time to improve your home's ability to withstand hurricane impacts. Trim trees; install storm shutters, accordion shutters, and/or impact glass; seal outside wall openings. Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X@GabeHauarior email him at Gdhauari@gannett.com. This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:Tropical Storm Alvin tracker: See projected path, spaghetti models
