The first tropical storm of 2025 in the Western Hemisphere will be on the map this week off the southwestern coast of Mexico, about two weeks after the beginning of theEastern Pacific hurricane season. Where it is now:The map below shows the current location of the system, several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Thunderstorms continue to sprout near its center and also to its north and east. (192-hours: Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on ourPremium Pro experience.) Is this a threat:This system is several hundred miles south of the Mexican Pacific Coast, and it is slowly moving west-northwestward. The majority of computer forecast models suggest future-Alvin should continue moving west-northwest over the next day or two before it then turns northward. If Alvin develops a solid core of thunderstorms, it could strengthen into a hurricane as soon as Thursday. After that, it is expected to move into a more hostile environment of wind shear, cooler water and drier air. What's more uncertain is if the system will fizzle offshore, or if it will curl northeastward toward a part of the Mexican coast in a weakened state around Saturday. At any rate, high surf and rip currents are likely along parts of Mexico's Pacific coast west of Acapulco later this week. And bands of locally heavy rain can be expected near the coast generally to the north and east of the system's track, with flash flooding and mudslides possible. The season is beginning:As senior meteorologistChris Dolcewrote about earlier this month, theEastern Pacific hurricane season officially begins on May 15, two weeks earlier than the Atlantic hurricane season. While many Eastern Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes move west-northwest and eventually fizzle in the open ocean, some do strike land, as we saw in 2023 with the remnant ofHurricane Hilaryin the Desert Southwest and with Category 5Hurricane Otisin Acapulco, Mexico. Sara Tonksis a content meteorologist with weather.com and has a bachelor's and a master's degree from Georgia Tech in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences along with a master's degree from Unity Environmental University in Marine Science.
